بررسي عوامل موثر بر ماليات تورمي در اقتصاد ايران (1380-1340)

The purpose of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, we wish to investigate the effects of the structural variables on inflation tax. On the other hand, our objective is to analyze the impact of inflation tax on consumer expenditure. In particular, we wish to investigate if inflation tax should be deducted from the GNP to obtain aggregate disposable income. For this purpose, we use both co-integration analysis and auto-regressive distributed lag-modelling approach. Our empirical results indicate that structural variables such as the share of agriculture and industrial sectors have a direct relationship with inflation tax, and the shares of import, exports and oil sectors in the GDP are inversely related with the inflation tax in the Iranʹs economy. The study covers the 1961-2001 period. Our analysis of the consumption function also confirms that inflation tax must be deducted from the GDP to arrive at a proper measure of aggregate disposable income in the long run. Impulse response function is also used to study the dynamic behavior of the model.