اثر كسري بودجه و نرخ ارز بر كسري حساب جاري تراز پرداخت هاي خارجي ايران

The Effect of Budget Deficit & Exchange Rate on Iranʹs Foreign Balance of Payments of Current Account Deficit

This article focuses on the effects of budget deficit and foreign exhange rate on current account Deficit of Iranʹs foreign balance of payment for the period from 1338 to 1380. The hypotheses we have tested in the paper are as follows: 1. The budget deficit has a positive effect on current account deficit. 2. The exchange rate has a positive effect on current account deficit. For examining these hypotheses,Vector Error Correction Model and Least Square Model, were used. Fundamentally, VECM is a auto-regressive model with the cointegration particulars that considers long-run and short-run relations. The results of the models show that during 1338-1380, the budget deficit and the exchange rate have had positive and statistically significant effects and, the oil revenues has had a negative effect on current account deficit in Iranʹs foreign balance of payments.