بازتاب سير تحول افكار اقتصادي و روش هاي نوين همجمعي بر ساخت الگوهاي اقتصادسنجي كلان

The Impact of Economic thoughts and New Co integration Methods on Emergence of Macro econometric Models

This paper seeks to study and evaluate the impact of the evolution process of economic thoughts on the mechanism of formulating the Macro econometric models. Macro econometric model are useful instruments for economic Policy - makers to evaluate the effects and implications of different economic Policy before they are implemented. They have evolved in the process of development in economic thinking and the emergence of new schools of thought in macroeconomics as weIles increasing developments in computer facilities. The present time has seen the birth of a news generation of Macro econometric model in the light of "unit root and Co integration" revolution. agriculture and industry can be traced to problems of asymmetric information in capital markets and, consequently, to benefits from relaxing the constraints on financing. In agricultuer, directed credit programs that help farmers accumulate sufficient wealth to own the land they cultivate may improve the allocation of resources. In industry, the benefits of government credit may include product and factor market externalities, as well as the direct benefits from relaxing borrowing constraints. In both sector, government credit can be useful in overcoming obstacles faced by private intermediaries when lending entails initial fixed costs that intermediaries cannot recapture. Whether government intervention in credit markets can achieve legitimate objectives depends on the mechanism chosen to implement directed credit. In some cases influence - Peddling and soft repayment constraints lead to inefficiencies from government involvement. In other cases these problems are avoided by establishing credible mechanisms that ensure the proper allocation and repayment of funds. Evidence on industrial credit programs in Japan shows an apparent link between that countryʹs success in directing credit to machine-tool producers and the Decision making process that governs the distribution of credit.