ارزيابي هدف هاي برنامه دوم و سوم توسعه در بخش صادرات غير نفتي با توجه به ظرفيتهاي توليدي بخش هاي اقتصادي

Evaluating the Goals of Second and Third Development Plans in Non-Oil Exports Sector, Considerering Production Capacities of Economic Sectors

This paper intends to evaluate the goals of the second and third development plans in non-oil export sector while considering the production potentials. To achieve this purpose the authors calculated export co-efficients of main economic sectors i.e. agriculture, mines and industries, as well as services and evaluated how much non-oil export goals have been met, having in mind the envisaged rates of production growth in each plan. The study reveals that given the projection of a considerable leap in non-oil export in the third development plan, it is doubtful how much the ideals of non-oil export will be accomplished in second half of the plan period. On the other hand, findings show that though the export capacities of the service sector are much higher than what envisaged in the plan and its goals could be totally materialized, meager attention has been paid to the sectorʹs potentials in the plan.