بررسي ارتباط ميان كسري حساب جاري با رابطه مبادله در اقتصاد ايران

A Survey on the Relationship Between Current Account Deficit & Terms of Trade in Iranʹs Economy

The effect of terms of trade on the macro-economic variables such as the current account balance is an important issue in international trade literature. This paper focuses on the short-run and long-run relationship between current account deficit and the terms of trade in Iran during 1959-2001, by using the: Vector Error Correction Model(VECM),lmpulse Response Functions of Vector Auto-Regressive Model(VAR), Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Error Correction Model (ECM). The hypothesis we test in the paper is as follows: There is a relationship between the currect account defecit and the terms of trade in Iran. The result signifies that, GDP has had a positive and statistically significant effect on the terms of trade, and the rate of exchange has a negative effect on the current account deficit.