پيش بيني رشد اقتصادي ايران و مقايسه آن با اهداف برنامه چهارم توسعه

Projecting Iranʹs Economic Growth and Comparing it with the Goals of the Fourth Development Plan

Surveying and studying various aspects of economic growth are twofold important. They intensify policy-makersʹ awareness and knowledge for decision-making on the .one side. On the other, they make it possible to project the growth rate through modeling method in the scientific and empirical frameworks. A great number of theoretical and applied studies have been carried out in Iran and abroad in order to finalize the tow mentioned goals, but according to differences in surveying methods and periods, they have led to different results and policies. Therefore, the researcher has used VEC models (during 1969-2002) and production function (based on Barro studies) with the aim of making a model for projecting economic growth during fourth development plan (2005-2009) so as to compare it with the economic growth goals that have already been projected for the fourth development plan. The results reveal that quantitative goals of the fourth development plan would not be materialized unless basic structure of Iranʹs economy is not reformed.