ارزيابي نوسان هاي قيمت نفت بر نرخ ارز

Evaluation of the Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Exchange Rate in Iran

This article studies the effects of real oil price fluctuations on the exchange rate in Iran during 1971-95. It describes the theoretical literature as well as the issue of real exchange rate and the nominal and parallel real exchange rate in per-and post-revolution Iran. With respect to the results of ARDL pattern, each 10 percent increase in real oil prices in the long-term would result in a 6.5 percent increase in real exchange rate. Also the real oil price in the most effective variable on the real exchange rate. However, the estimated Coeficient shows that PER changes are Inelenslic to rigid against oil prices. Therefore, according to this pattern, the Dutch disease is not so significent in Iran.