تحليل سازگاري سرمايه گذاري در برنامه هاي توسعه ايران

Investment Consistency Analysis in Iranʹs Development Plans

Projecting the amount of investments needed for achieving the goals of any development plan is considered one of the most crucial issues in the plan that explains the reliability and validity of the plan goals regarding its orientations. Evidently, one of the useful and effective tools in planning and decision-making for leading the economy and assisting the economic executives is to make use of the input - output technique. Because of equilibrial nature of this model, one of the its uses is to offer a consistency model in order to analyze the implications of the envisaged goals about creating economic activities for the demand side of economy and to estimate the required investments .For this purpose, this paper uses input-output tables related to 1988, 1994 and 2000 to analyze the amount of consistency in required and projected investments in Iranʹs first, second, third and fourth development plans. The results of the study are indicative of greater consistency of envisaged quantitative goals in the fourth development plan compared to other development plans after the Islamic Revolution.