تاثير نوسانات قيمت نفت بر توليد بخش كشاورزي ايران (بيماري هلندي )

The Effect of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Production of Agricultural Sector in Iran (Dutch Disease)

According to Dutch Disease Theory, economic booming in one-sector of on economy affects all the other sectors of the economy as well. As an example, it can be pointed out: the strengthening of real exchange rate, raising the level of imports, decreasing exports of the non-booming sector, weakening of traditional sector, and moving labor and other factors of production to the booming sector. The raise in the level of oil revenue, as a result of the rise in oil price, has proved many assumptions of Dutch Disease Theory in Iran. One assumption is that the rise of oil revenue results in a decline of production in agricultural and other traditional sectors. This paper examines the assumption, by utilizing regression analysis and 1350-1379 time series data to study the effect of oil price fluctuations on the prodoction of agricultural sector in Iran. The result of this study shows that the assumption is true for Iran and the rise in oil price has a negative effect on the agricultural sector. On the other hand the results show, the price shock on the value added of agricultural sector declines and vanishes over time.