مدل سازي كمي و پهنه بندي خطر زمين لغزش در زاگرس چين خورده

The Quantitative Modelling and the Zonation of Landslide Risk in the Folded Zagros (THE case study of Sarkhoun Watershed-Chaharmahal - o - Bakhtiari Province)

One of the first steps in Natural resource management & Development Planning, is the recognition of susceptible area to Mass Movements & landslides Events. These Phenomena occur under influence of many natural & human factors that evaluation of Their effects have significant role in forecasting of Probability of Mass movements, in this survey the occurred Mass movements & landslides has been recognized in sarkhoun watershed (in Ardal shahrestan of Chaharmahal - 0 - Bakhtiari Province) by the interpretation of aerial Photos & field observations. Based on the results, the dispersion Maps of different kinds of Mass movements have been Provided. Also, other environmental characteristics of the area Consisted 19 quantitative and 4 qualitative variables have been studied & the relevant Maps have been Provided in Geographic ir, formation system (GIS). In order to modeling three Methods in valves of logistic Regression Model, Linear Regression Model, & Probit Model has been Used in this survey & finally some equations have been Built for forecasting & Mapping oJ Probability of Mass Movements events. Afterward the final Maps Classify the watershed in to Two Zones: High risk (or Probability) & low risk, & the Percentage of Modeling accuracy have been evaluated. The results show that model - making based on the logistic Regression Model has the Maximum accuracy for forecasting. The maps o) forecasting & Zonation ofthe probability of Mass Movements events can be used widely in different local & reginal development Planning.