پيش‌بيني و كنترل جرائم خشونت بار

Predicting and controlling violent crime.

Much ofthe criminological researches during last twenty years has been in refining our understanding of risk factors of crime for different groups in different locations on the fact that a substantial proportion of killers do not come from broken homes, have not had violent parents, were not unemployed at the time ofthe offence, or donʹt possess any of other identified risk factors. This finding indicates the complex dynamics that go into the making of serious violence. But no existing theoretical model can make sense of all the data or account for all violent crimes. Over the past decade, violent crimes has been exceptionally high on the political agenda of many countries, and has been at the fore front of debates about penal policy. Many of the legislative, policy, and practice changes which they have influenced, have been largely concerned with sentencing- in particular, tougher and preventive sentencing. However other approaches have been developing in a quieter fashion. Not all recent developments have been based on the view that violence reduction can only be achieved by incapacitating ofknown offenders. In particular, there has been a revival ofbelief in the effectiveness ofcorrectional methods. There has also been increasing experimentation with various forms ofsituational crime prevention including efforts to manage violence through altering risky environments.