محاسبه حداكثر سيل محتمل )PMF( در شرايط مواجه با كمبود آمار و اطلاعات

Calculation ofPMF for Ungauged Catchments

Large hydraulic structures and the consequent dangers originated from the break of such structures make the designers apply extreme conditions in their designs. Probable maximum flood (PMF) is one of the design criterions that are widely used in this regard. To calculate PMF, huge data and information such as probable maximum precipitation (PMP), storm duration, rainfall temporal pattern and antecedent soil moisture condition are required. This study aims at calculating PMF, considering the conditions governing ungauged catchments. For this purpose a combination of effective factors affecting PMF, especifically rainfall temporal pattern accompanied with different rainfall systems direction and antecedent soil conditions have been evaluated for the rivers located in the east of Hormozgan Province. The results show that combining the observed average of temporal patterns and random block procedure is a relevant approach for the study area. Also the results show sensitivity of PMF to antecedent soil moisture and not significant response ofPMF to the rainfall systems direction.