ارزيابي تغيير اقليم كشور در دوره ي 2039- 2010 ميلادي با استفاده از ريزمقياس نمايي داده هاي مدل گردش عمومي جو ECHO­G

Climate Change Assessment over Iran During 2010-2039 by Using Statistical Downscaling of ECHO- G Model

Because of low spacial resolution of General Circulation Models, they can not predict weather and climate accurately. In this regards Weather Generator models have been developed by climatologists to downscale GCM outputs into station scale. In this research, grided meteorological outputs of ECHO-G model including precipitation, maximun temperature, minimum temperature and radiation have been downscaled over 43 synoptic stations of Iran during 2010-2039 with A1 scenario. Results show that the mean annual precipitation will be decreased by 9 percent, increasing of mean annual temperature by 0.5 degree of centigrade during period of 2010-2039. Maximum increase predicted to occure over North Khorasan, West and East Azarbaijan. Also thresholds of heavy and extreme rainfalls will be increased by 13 and 39 percent, respectively. In this regards, in the future period, the rainfalls will be heavy and flash- flooded and there is a significant decrease in the amount of snow falls and shift of precipitation in to the end of cold season.