كاربرد روش دلفي براي استخراج عوامل كيفي ريسك و استفاده از آن در تعيين رتبه ريسك كيفي وام گيرندگان:موردكاوي بانك كار آفرين

Delphi application in Qualitative Risk Score Estimation of Borrowers: Case of Karafarin Bank

Unreliability of financial statements in Iran has urged this countryʹs financial services industry management to manipulate practices by which they could gain reliable risk scores for borrowers. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the qualitative risk score of relationship lending in banking sector of Iran. This research extracts the most influential qualitative factors that would impact the default of a business borrower. Solicitation of the factors is done through Delphi methodology. As a case study, lending relationships of a private bank, Karafarin Bank (KB), and hundred of its relationship borrowers (some being creditworthy clients and some having past dues), are examined and the credit committee of the bank is asked to rate these companies according to extracted attributes found by this research through Delphi method. The relationship risk score of these companies are then derived and analyzed. The analysis of the firmsʹ risk scores reveals useful managerial implications on how to better manage B2B relationships by distinguishing low risk and high risk borrowers.