توسعه بيمه و رشد اقتصادي: تحليل نظري و تجربي در اقتصاد ايران 1383 - 1338

Insurance Development and Economic Growth: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis in Iran 1960-2004

The purpose of the present paper is to analyze the relationship between insurance development and economic growth in Iran during 1960-2004. While different results have been obtained from theoretical point of views between financial development and economic growth regarding the presented views (i.e. 1-Financial development promotes economic growth "Supply leading theory".2-Economic growth promotes financial development "demand-following theory".3- There is no relationship between financial development and economic growth), in this paper , the major emphasis is that the issue of causality should be empirically investigated. Unit root, cointegration and causality tests based on Error Correction Models (ECM) and first difference VARs Models have been applied. The results show that there is a unidirectional causality from insurance development and life(death,living a certain period, disability and injury or incurring a disease) insurance development to economic growth, though this issue is not confirmed for non-life(property/casualty) insurance. The results indicate that for other types of insurance, there isnʹt causality relationship from fire insurance to economic growth, but there exists a one -way causality relationship from Auto insurance to economic growth and the unidirectional causality relationship from cargo insurance to economic growth both in long and short term is seen. For life(death,living a certain period and disability) insurance,there is a one-way causality relationship from life insurance development to economic growth, while for accident insurance, there is a one-way causality relationship from economic growth to accident insurance. JEL Classification: G22, E44, 016, 043.