تخمين رابطه ميان قيمت نفت خام و گاز طبيعي مايع شده (LNG)، با استفاده از مدل تصحيح خطا

Estimation of Long Term Relationship between Oil and Liquefied Natural Gas Prices through the Error Correction Model

The prevailing method of natural gas pricing assumes that it has a close relationship with crude oil price and follows its gyrations. Due to this, for many years the price of natural gas has been taken as a function of oil prices. Analysis of historical trends of oil and gas prices in regional markets also shows that these two variables are closely correlated. This study tries to explain the above relationship by using econometrics methods and examining the stability of this long term relationship. To this end, after referring to some common rules of thumb for estimating gas prices through a simple regression, the hypothesis that a simple regression is able to produce an efficient and unbiased estimate of gas prices is examined. The study concludes by offering an Error Correction Model that can produce efficient estimations of the long term relationship between oil and gas prices.