بررسي ميزانهاي بقا و عوامل پيش آگهي دهنده آن در مبتلايان به سرطان كولوركتال

Survival Rates and Prognostic Factors in Colorectal Cancer Patients

Introduction: The incidence of colorectal cancer has increased in Iran in recent years and become the fourth most common cancer in both sexes. The aim of this study was to define the prognostic factors in Iranian colorectal cancer patients using univariate and multivariate methods. Materials & methods: All patients with colorectal carcinoma admitted to the Cancer Registry Center of Shahid Beheshti university of medical sciences; during Jan 1, 2002 to Jan 1, 2007 were analyzed. Survival rates of all the cases were determined. The probability curves for survival were calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier Method, then compared by the Log-rank test. Multivariate analysis was carried out using the Cox proportional hazard model. Findings: Out of 1138 cases, a survival information was obtained on 1127 patients, 690 males (61.2%) and 437 females (38.8%). The mean survival time was 105.1(CI: 95,1-115.1) months. The Kaplan-Meier method indicated that, the 1, 3, 5, 7, 10 and 15 years survival rates were 91.1, 73.1, 61.0, 54.9, 47.9, 25 and 9 percent, respectively. These variables were independent prognostic factors for survival as determined by multivariate analysis, that is, tumor size, metastasis of tumor, body mass index, marital status, and grade of tumor. Conclusion: Our results showed that stage of tumor, state of metastasis, grade of tumor and tumor size should be considered the most important prognostic factors in colorectal cancer patients. There fore, early detection of cancer using screening programs can improve survival in such patients.