بررسي ارتباط متقابل بين توليد و تورم در اقتصاد ايران ( با تأكيد بر توليد بخشي)

An Analysis of the Inter-relationship between Production and Inflation in IRAN (Emphasizing on Sect oral Production)

This article analyzes the inter-relationship between inflation and sect oral production by vector auto regression (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models. In this research, we use the data extracted between years 1974-2005. The results show that the inflation is not a mere monetary phenomenon in Iran and its chronicity is related to real variables (production and sect oral production). Also, based on the results of this research, the relation between inflation and production is a long term issue. While, this relation (between sect oral production and inflation) in services sector is shorter run than agriculture and industry. Besides, in the short run, based on the results of variance decomposition, the contribution of agriculture sector in inflation is more than services and the latter is more than industry. Therefore, the government can regulate more the prices of agricultural and services productions in order to control the inflation. On the other hand, results of estimated VAR model indicate that services sector is more sensitive to increase in inflation rather than other sectors. Such that as inflation increases, the production of services sector increases more than other sectors and by increase in production of services sector , inflation reduces more rapidly in relation to other sectors . Also, the application of estimated models in policy making is that for controlling the inflation in Iran one can not rely only on monetary policies and in long run the real sector of economy (production) should be taken into account.