تعيين رابطه سرمايه گذاري با ايجاد اشتغال در بخش حمل ونقل

Determining the Relationship Between Investment and Job Creation in Transportation Sector

In analyzing the macro economics issues, investing in transportation sector in order to job creation has paramount importance. In this paper , the role of investment on job creation in transportation sector is estimated and analyzed based on dynamic approaches regarding - labor demand and cointegration. For estimating the model, statistical data within the period 1350-1381 have been be used. Results show that primarily the cointegration models variables are recognized , then structural models and the optimal number of orders will be specified. In the next step, the number of co-integration vectors are determined and finally, the relationship between investment and labors demand in transportation sector are estimated. In order to join the long term balanced relationship among variables with short term fluctuations, vector error correction model related to balanced relation, will be estimated for variable employment in transportation. Among of different models of labor demand, the best model is "scientific model" which is estimated from the following relationship: LD = a0 + ax AKt + a2Kt + a3PKt + ut LD = shows the number of job applicator AK= Total number of investment K= The current amount of investment PK= Utilization of investment U= disturbance of time T= Time The results shows that the more labor demand, the more increased investment. Based on this method, if the investment in transportation increased to 1 million, the number of labor demand in transportation sector will be increased only to 19 percent. On the other hand, %19 xlOOO^ 19, means that creating a new job in transportation sector demands 52.63 Million Rail investment. By creating a new job, 621 persons will be employed at new jobs. According to achieved analytical results and based on vector error correction model, the following result may be concluded. The transportation sector having the development strategy regarding two inputs (labor demand and investment) will have no substitutes for the labor demand and there will be no reduction in the manpower