تفاوت هاي قومي باروري در ايران: روندها و عوامل مؤثر بر آن

Ethnic Fertility Differentials in Iran: Trends and Correlates

The aim of this article is to describe the ethnic differences in fertility transition during 1972-2000, and to study the role of family planning and development programs on ethnic fertility convergence. This study is a secondary analysis. The statistical population includes 24 provinces of Iran and the analysis concentrates on four ethnic groups namely Farses, Turks, Kurds, and Baluchese. The research analytical and conceptual framework is composed of demographic transition theory, characteristics hypothesis, and proximate determinant model. The results show that ethnic groups experienced different fertility levels and trends as compared with whole country during fertility transition period. Moreover, ethnic groups differ in terms of the timing of fertility transition, the rate of fertility reduction during fertility transition period, attainment of replacement-level fertility, and continuing fertility decline. According to this study, ethnic fertility convergence in Iran is a new phenomenon that appeared in the mid-1990s. This study also shows that the fertility transition in Iran, like some other developing countries, has occurred in different developmental conditions. It seems that ideational change and social interaction is the factor that has changed the relationship between development and fertility.