برآورد تقاضاي انرژي مفيد بخش خانگي در ايران به تفكيك گروههاي هزينه اي مختلف خانوار

Assessment of Household Effective Energy Demand in Iran for Separate Expenditure Groups

Among various users of energy, the household sector has a major role accounting for around one-third of total energy consumption. We employ the MADE-II energy forecasting model in which the level of household income affects energy demand to estimate household effective energy demand. The study forecasts effective energy demand for seven uses across ten expenditure groups in rural and urban area of every province. The results show that effective energy demand for space-heating constitutes around 70 percent of total energy demand, amounting to 764 million GJs. Amongst provinces; Tehran, Khorasan-E-Razavi, and Esfahan have the highest effective energy demand. Meanwhile, Chaharmahal-E- Bakhtiari has the highest per family effective energy demand at 91.88 GJs while Hormozghan has the least per family demand at 37.57 GJs. JEL Classification: Q41, Q48, C63