بررسي ريشه هاي مالي تورم در ايران (با تأكيد بر كسري بودجه)

Analysis of the Fiscal Sources of Inflation in Iran Giving Special Emphasis to Budget Deficits

This paper addresses two questions. Does inflation in Iran stem from fiscal policy? Does inflationary impact depend upon the sources of budget deficit financing? Although the above questions have already been studied, there is no consensus on the findings, since the results are sensitive to the methodologies and the time period covered by the data. This paper employs vector auto regressions, impulse response functions, variance decomposition and co-integration techniques to estimate the short and long term relationship between inflation and a number of fiscal indicators in Iran. The annual data are used over the period 1973 to 2006. Particular emphasis is placed on the government budget deficit predominantly financed by government borrowing. The results indicate that inflation is mostly induced by import prices, oil revenue and government budget deficit.