مقايسه مدل لجيستيك و مدل هاي هاروي در پيش بيني مصرف برق ايران

A Comparison of Logistic Model and Harvey Models in Forecasting Electricity Consumption of Iran

There are some forecasting models derived from logistic growth curves. This paper compares the predictive power of three relatively new models namely, Logistic, Harvey Logistic, and Harvey models in the prediction of electricity consumption in Iran. These models are employed to calculate and to compare actual and predicted values of domestic, non-domestic and total consumption of electricity in Iran. The results suggest that Harvey model outperforms other models in forecasting Iranian electricity consumption. JEL Classification: Q40, 053, Q49