شكست ساختاري و آزمون فرضيه هاي انتظارات عقلايي كلان درايران:(1386-1367)

Structural Breaks and Test of MRE Proposition in Iran: (1367-1386)

There is no agreement among different economic schools about role of monetary policy in stabilization policy. New classic by means of rational expectations show that only unanticipated monetary policy influences upon real variables. How ever New keynsian by means of rational expectations shows that anticipated monetary policy influences real ariables too. The present article investigates above subject by using Mishkin method. We have used seasonally data on M2 as a monetary aggregate and real GDP excluding oil revenue variables for the period (1367:1- 1386:4). Further more effect of structural breaks and length of lag have been taken under consideration. Findings show that structural break and length of lag will influence on the results of test. With structural breaks, macro rational Expectations (MRE) in three lag is rejected and in eleven and sixteen lag are confirmed, and also unanticipated money in three lag doesnʹt influence on the differences of real GDP excluding oil revenue and in seven, eleven and sixteen lag it was effective. While ignoring structural breaks, results are completely reversed. JEL Classification: E52, E12, E31, B22