شناسايي نقاط چرخش دورانهاي اقتصادي ايران در يك زمان واقعي

Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time: Case of Iran

When a business cycle enters to new phase is more important. Because the policies usually affect economy with some internal and external delays. It is possible that a policy designed on recession period affect economy in expansionary phase. For this reason it is very important to identify business cycle turning points in real time. These points occur on future and are expected factors, then must to be forecasted. In this paper we estimated business cycle turning points in Iran economy using advanced statistic methods: such as mixed provident indicators and Markow chains.