شناسايي عوامل موثر بر عرضه و تقاضاي جهاني نفت و گاز با استفاده از تكنيك AHP

The Identification of the Key Factors Affecting Global Oil & Gas Supply and Demand Using AHP Techniques

Identifying, analyzing and evaluating key factors that influence the global Oil & Gas market have always been main items of discussion amongst scientific circles, technicians and decision takers and policy makers at national and international levels. Optimal methods for assessing these factors are essential challenges for governments, consumers and producers, and national and international companies active in global markets. Groups engaged in market analysis have adopted different approaches to assess market evolution. Given the assumption that all approaches are one-dimensional, the key question is to arrive at an approach that produces valid results for an uncertain and complicated global market. The development of interdisciplinary science and multidimensional studies provide an opportunity for comprehensive and multidimensional modeling for identification of key factors that influence the Oil & Gas global market. This paper uses AHP techniques to quantify the weight of variables that impact supply and demand. The paper then identifies the relative weight of each factor for policy setting and decision making at the macro level. The results indicate that the weight and relative importance of demand and supply variables are different. The study also proposes areas of future research based on initial results obtained.