لزوم و چگونگي اصلاح الگوي مصرف و يارانه اي فرآورده هاي نفتي و سنجش آثار تورمي آن

The Rationale and Mechanisms for Reform of Consumption Patterns and Subsidies of Oil Products and Assessing their Inflationary Impact

Although Iran has substantial energy resources, it is a developing country due to sub-optimal use of these resources. Moreover, oil products have a major share in total energy consumption and are mostly consumed by the household sector. Therefore, urgent action is needed for optimizing consumption of oil products in the country. Given that unrealistic pricing of oil products is the main reason for the high level of consumption in the country, introducing realistic prices is a necessity. However, decision making is complicated by different options available for revising prices and the likely impact of higher oil product prices on the inflation rate. This study assesses the inflationary impact of raising oil prices on the CPI(Consumer Price Index) and PPI(Producer Price Index) using the input-output table of 1383 with 56 commodities. The research considers both a onetime increase and increases in a gradual manner. The research shows that a onetime adjustment has such a major inflationary impact that it cannot be implemented. From amongst gradual systems of price increase a linear approach has the least inflationary impact and is thus the optimal approach to be adopted.