مدل سازي اقتصاد، توليد اتانول زيستي: اثرات متقابل قيمت ذرت و توليد اتانول زيستي

Modeling Interaction between Corn Price and Bio-Ethanol Production

Ethanol is being produced by using different agricultural crops including corn. From the time corn is being used to produce energy, the nature of corn as a commodity has been changed. The corn is considered as an energy product as well as food product. Many factors are affecting ethanol and related industries and activities. Variables like Oil prices, ethanol technology, corn prices, financial credits and subsides on ethanol, supportive energy polices, and the international trade of corns and ethanol are among the factors that have impacts on this industry. Oil prices and corn price have direct impacts on profitability of ethanol production and play key roles in this industry. The corn price itself is affected by the increasing demand for corn as feedstock and energy carrier. Due to limitation of future production (land use, the productivity of land, etc.) theoretically it is assumed that the corn price will increase due to the expansion of ethanol production capacity in the future. Although there might be a corn over-planting in response to higher prices in the short term. The increase in corn prices would have impacts on its demand and also ethanol profitability. The same can be said on oil prices. With higher oil prices, the profitability of ethanol production increases and vice versa. The econometric model using the US data has confirmed these findings.