بررسي اثر بي ثباتي رابطه ي مبادله بر رشد اقتصادي ايران

The Impact of Terms of Trade Volatility on Economic Growth of Iran

The major challenge facing Iranian economy is its overwhelming dependence on the oil exports. However, the world oil price has been subject to a lot of shocks, which have destabilized the Iranian terms of trade. Hence, this paper empirically examines the effect of terms of trade volatility on Iranʹs economic growth over 1967-2006. For this purpose, based on a GARCH model, a proxy for the terms of trade volatility has been estimated. Then, a growth model has been specified, where the economic growth is mainly related to the terms of trade volatility alongside with other relevant variables. The empirical results obtained by ARDL technique suggest the terms of trade uncertainty has adverse effect on the Iranian economic growth. JEL Classification: F43; O1 1