مدل سازي منطقه اي خطر زمين لغزش با استفاده از روش آماري رگرسيون چند متغيره در حوزه آبخيز لاجيم رود ساري

Regional Modeling of landslide Hazard, Using Multivariate Statistic Method in Lajemrood- Sari Basin

In basins of the northern part of Iran, combination of natural and human factors has intensified landslide and related numerous damages. The investigation importance of this phenomena and effective factors of landslide occurrence and also determining susceptible zones it order to preventing and avoiding its effects is required. At the beginning, of this research after field investigation, review of previous works in similar Lajemrood basin and using questionnaire, were recognized primary effective factors on landslide occurrence. Thin preparing effective factors maps in Geographic Information System. In order to quantifying the factors and weighting them, landslides percentage in different units was determined. For statistical analysis of multiple regressions the stepwise method was used which concluded with ignoring the elevation factor as regional model. Finally, geology, land use, slopes and distance from the road has the most effects on landslides. For evaluation of the accuracy of this model, neighboring basing (Varakee basin) with similar characteristics was chosen. The results have indicated that the most recorded area landslides in Varaki basin occurred in high and high hazard zonation. Thus, it can be concluded that presented model can be used for the study area.