تاثير نوسانهاي چرخه هاي تجاري بر رشد اقتصادي در ايران

The Effect of Business Cycles Volatility on Economic Growth in Iran

One of the most important economic challenges that every economy of the world is facing is how to reach to a sustained growth in the long run. The aim of this research is to survey about the effects of business cycle volatility on economic growth in Iran from 1340 to 1387. Some of the variables used in this research were growth of gross national product, volatility of business cycles, inflation, inflation uncertainty and the index of financial depth. In this survey, at first the volatility of business cycles and inflation uncertainty were computed by generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscdasticity model. Then we estimated the effects of volatility cycles in the long run for economic growth by using co-integration test and vector erorr correction Model. The results of this estimation show that the business cycle volatility causes a decrease in the long run economic growth. The reason is that the volatiity of economic production causes uncertainty in production and then as a result of that a decreas in investment and long run economic growth.