مطالعه تغييرات بارش و دماي ايران با استفاده از مدل MAGICC SCENGEN

The study of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Iran with MAGICC SCENGEN Model

Human, has significant impact on climate behaviour. It will be caused changing by world population growth, Greenhouse Gases emissions, disrupting of land surface with making dam, deforestation ,desertification and so in climatic systems. This paper try to study precipitation and temperature changes in Iran in term of increasing greenhouse gas in future decades. It has used MAGICC SCENGEN model with 8 climate change scenarios. For this purpose, temperature and precipitation data, as a basic data, has selected during 1961- 2000, then has been investigated temperature and precipitation changes for future decades. Iran has divided to 30 geographical regions By geographical coordinate system then temperature and precipitation changes studied for each region and so average of variations analysed in 30 region for 2000, 2025, 2075 and 2100 periods. Iran has not calculated West and northwest in this model. The results of this paper show that in all of Iranian 30 regions the change of temperature have increasing trend that this increase will have high amount after 2025 decade. The amount of temperature such as south and centre of Iran will be more than north regions. Precipitation variations all of the Iran regions will be decrease in precipitation aspect. In some parts of the north regions the amount of precipitation will have increase during 2000 decade. The north of Iran will have a little decrease rather than other region