بررسي ميزان وابستگي كشورهاي صنعتي به نفت صادراتي از تنگه ي هرمز به وسيله تخمين تابع تقاضا براي نفت منطقه ي خليج فارس

Estimation of Oil Demand Function for the Persian Gulf Region

About 60 percent of the worldʹs known reserves of oil reside in the Middle East region. As such, any developments of this region are of utmost importance for the world economy. The Strait of Hormuz is the export conduit for 90 percent of the oil of the countries bordering the Persian Gulf, supplying 40 percent of world oil consumption, and is controlled by our country. Since assessment of the sensitivity of world economy to oil, specifically, in this region, is very critical for our country, we have tried to determine the price and income elasticity through a study of world demand for the oil exported from the Strait of Hormuz. Price rise can cause higher income for exporting countries in the short- term period. However, in the long run, it causes a substantial decrease in the demand and subsequently in the income of exporting countries. The world demand for the oil exported from the Strait of Hormuz is inelastic. Moreover, the trend for substitution of renewable energies for oil is slow, but ever-increasing. Finally, the significant and influential conclusion is the substantial impact of the gross domestic product of developed countries on the demand for oil.