نظريه هاي چرخه اي و نگرشي تحليلي در مورد امنيت ملي ج.ا. ايران در سيستم نوين بين الملل

Long cycle theories and analysis of national security of Iran

Structure of this article is formed upon this issue that whatʹs linkage between world systems cycles and its turning points with great powers behavioral patterns and then national security of other actors. And will survey this subject that whatʹs affects of these patterns on national security of Iran? In this respect article analyze world system as framework of order that has hegemonic long cycles and every cycle is composed from different phases. Hegemonic power experiences differentiated turning or critical points including lower turning, rising inflection, upper turning and declining inflection points. At these points the state reassesses its relative position, base of national capability, foreign policy goals and capacity to reach those objectives. The hegemonic power at every point will adjust and reformulate strategies for the future position within world system and will pursue especial behavioral pattern. At world power phase and upper turning point these behaviors are aggressively and intrusively. These behaviors threats different aspects of national security of states. Recently I.r. Iran is threaten by these behaviors. Also the article analyzes national security of Iran at this critical point.