مديريت و تحليل داده هاي بزهكاري بخش مركزي شهر تهران با استفاده از تكنيك هاي درون يابي و سامان هاي اطلاعات جغرافيايي

Delinquency Data Management and Analysis in Central Tehran through Utilizing Interpolation Technique and Geographical Information Systems

Background and Objective: Over the last decade, using Geographi-cal Information Systems (GISs) and statistical and graphic techniques have become of high importance to combat and prevent delinquency in law enforcement management and policing. In this regard, selecting an optimal interpolation technique for estimating the characteristics of a region in the points were sampling is not performed, is of high importance in managing law enforcement data and confronting delinquency. The present article aims at finding the answer to the question: "what is the most suitable existing geo-statistical method in ArcGIS to be used for the best regional estimation of prone to crime areas in central Tehran and for optimized law enforcement mar gement of Central Tehran?" Material and Methods: Four methods -simple Kriging, ordinary Krig-ing, square reverse distance, radiant basic functions- were used for analyzing the committed crimes. It is on this basis that the delinquency map of central Tehran was prepared. In line with this, first, in lieu of each model, its profile was calculated and drawn. Afterwards, the mapsʹ errors were estimated through using cross-validation method, and then one map out of sixteen was selected as the proper sample for developing delinquency map of central Tehran to manage law enforcement data in an optimal way. Findings: The results of the research indicate that the method called square reverse distance with exponent 1 is more accurate for interpolation of delinquency in central Tehran, compared with other methods. The result of the crime map overlap, lands application and population distribution indicate that in business and administrative areas in central Tehran and those areas having resident population, some more low profile delinquency centers are formed. Conclusion: Through using the results of the analysis of the maps prepared through interpolation method, one can realize that the places in affected areas require optimized law enforcement management, improving and designing resistant environment and permanent controls through detaching regular and random patrols.