بررسي كارايي شاخص هاي كلان اقتصادي در الگوهاي پيش بيني بحران مالي در محيط اقتصادي ايران (الگوهاي مورد مطالعه: تافلرو ديكن)

Appraising the Efficiency of Macroeconomic Variables in in Iran Financial Distress Prediction Models (The Case Study: Taffler Model, Deakin Model)

Failure prediction or financial distress models are much discussed in accounting and credit management literature , and a lot of studies have been dedicated to the search for the most effective empirical methods for failure prediction . There are many early-warning systems such as Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980) using accounting information that have been developed in order to identify financial institutions with financial difficulties . But the studies indicate that other sources of information such as economic characteristics may also prove useful in predicting financial distress . The purpose of this paper is to determine whether a model utilizing a number of economic variables in combination with financial ratios results in a model superior to the traditional models including the financial ratios alone. Thus the study examined and compared the ability of traditional Taffler and Deakin models and the developed models with combination of macroeconomic variables for financial distress prediction. The research relies on a sample of 30 failed and 30 non-failed manufacturing firms listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange over the 1376-1385 periods . A sample of 30 manufacturing companies which had become bankrupt between 1376 and 1385 were identified from The Article No .141 of Commercial Law and matched to 30 non-failed companies on the basis simple Q- tubin . This study used Logit analysis as a statistical methodology to determine the failure predicting ability of models. Based on the findings, it is claimed traditional Taffler model are able to predict financial distress , but developed Taffler , & Deakin models with combination of macroeconomic variables cannot predict failure , but model that includes macroeconomic variables cannot predict failure . However the addition of macroeconomic variables into the traditional models did not have a considerable impact on the identification of financial distress .