رابطه ارزشي تغييرات اهرم مالي در تبيين عملكرد عملياتي

هدف اين تحقيق اين است كه مشخص شود آيا تغييرات در اهرم مالي مي‌تواند در ارزيابي عملكرد كمك كند. روش اين پژوهش استفاده از رويكرد رگرسيوني تعيين ارتباط بين تغييرات اهرم مالي و بازده سهام شركتهاست كه به عنوان نماينده‌ي عملكرد عملياتي شركتها در نظر گرفته شده است. جامعه آماري تحقيق، شركتهاي عضو بورس اوراق بهادار تهران و دوره‌ زماني مورد مطالعه سالهاي 1378 تا 1388 است. نتايج تحقيق نشان مي‌دهد كه تغييرات اهرم مالي، اطلاعاتي فراتر از آنچه از طريق معيارهاي سنتي در دسترس قرار مي‌گيرد، فراهم مي‌كند. اگرچه تمركز اصلي اين مطالعه بر بازده جاري قرار گرفته است از آنجا كه بازار، محتواي اطلاعاتي تغييرات اهرم مالي را بموقع درك نمي‌كند، تاثير آن تا دوره بعد نيز تسري مي‌يابد.

The operating performance of a firm is not directly observable. The earlier researches have shown that criteria such as accounting earnings and cash flows are representatives of unobservable aspects of operating performance. The purpose of this study is to indicate whether changes in financial leverage can help us in evaluating performance. This study deals with a different dimension of traditional view that considers financial leverage as a criterion of risk assessment. The method in this research is based on regression analysis to determine the relationship between changes in financial leverage and stock return of a firm regarding as a representative of operating performance of the firm. The statistical population of this study consists of companies accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange in 1378 to 1388. The results of this research indicate that changes in financial leverage provide more information than what is available through traditional criteria. The information content of changes in financial leverage is incremental in comparison with accounting earnings, operating cash flows, and accruals. Although the focus of this study is on the current return, the impact is extended to the next period, because the market does not understand the information content of changes in financial leverage in time.