انتخاب سيستم هاي اطلاعاتي در محيط هاي غيرقطعي با استفاده از روش هيبريدي (تلفيق روش هاي برنامه ريزي سناريو، طراحي بديهي و دلفي فازي)

Selecting Information Systems Projects in Uncertain Environments Using a Hybrid Method (Integration of Scenario Planning, Axiomatic Design and Fuzzy Delphi Method)

Information systems decisions are of the main concerns of managers. Existence of uncertainties and different objectives and attributes influence the quality of decisions. Environmental uncertainties can challenge the quality of IS investment decisions. Investment decisions, made without any respect to environmental changes, will loose their effectiveness as time passes. IS investment decisions require attention to different attributes such as return on investment, strategic competitiveness and user satisfaction. Multi-attribute decision making (MADM) approaches can play an important role to make investment decisions. This study aims to integrate scenario planning (as a tool to meet environmental uncertainties), Axiomatic Design (MADM approach) and Fuzzy Delphi method (experts opinions acquiring and consensus tool) as a Hybrid Model to propose a new methodology to make IS investment decisions about the outsourcing or insourcing of the development of the information systems. A case study in IS investment has been done. The case is about the selection of an ERP system in Iranian National Oil Company (NOC). Keywords: Scenario planning, Uncertainty, Axiomatic design, Information system, Fuzzy delphi method, Hybrid model.