اندازه گيري تورم پايه در اقتصاد ايران مبتني بر رويكرد آماري

Measuring Core Inflation in Iran (Statistical Approach)

This study tries to measure core inflation in Iranʹs economy, using statistical approach. The necessity of knowing about core inflation is that it increases signals to likely noises (shocks). Through using coring inflation criteria in policy making, monetary policies become more effective, as policymakers just react to fluctuations in measured inflation, ignoring temporary noises. Core inflation criteria is an appropriate method for both the measurement of current and future inflation trends which are targets for monetary policy. The results show that the method based on exclusion of "food and education" groups, is the most accurate to measure core inflation. On the other hand, "housing" group, coincident with expectations, known to be the most sustainable component of inflation in Iranʹs economy. Therefore, to control inflation on the basis of results, consideration of a 5-years plan for inflation targeting is recommended.