بررسي، تحليل و پيش بيني تغييرات جمعيت و اشتغال با استفاده از مدل طولي و عرضي ايزاردو سهم ضريب مكاني (مطالعه موردي شهرستان سمنان)

Consideration,analyzing and prediction population changes and employ ment by using Isar linear and transversal descriptive model of change two place conffiuent shift-share

Undubtedly work fovce was considered as most fundamental factor of production and thenefare many developed and developing contnies with professioned foresight planed development of production factors and naturauy their ptoduction structure and development based development centraity of human resources.Best we of woreforce in each society involve correct understand and recongnition of each parts. This article that was writted using field and librares searches,first was paid attention to considering Semnan different ecanamic parts and its pvediction for peviods of 10-15 years,and then we cansidery Semnan different economic parts titled agricultur(and its us parts),industriey and mine and servies and explained semnan role in 1365,1375,1385 traingular diagram with its change model. Then,place confficents of economic fundamental parts were appointed,and using Izar liner and transversal descriptive model with analyzinr Semnan economic structure as amongparts in semnan and inter parts with reference level(totall contry),employment changes were considered during three decade ,also predicted employment in three main parts of Semnan using shift-share change model and finally three scanerios were provided for prediction future structure of main jobs in 1395-1400. * Raheleh Khodadadi 09192314834 Khodadadir@gmail.com Keywords ʹ.population changes, transversal-linear descriptive and place conefecient, shift-share, employment structure