پيش‌بيني تقاضاي انرژي براي بخش حمل‌ونقل ايران در افق زماني 1404 با استفاده از مدل ARIMA‌

ENERGY DEMAND FORECAST FOR THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR IN IRANʹʹS PROSPECTS IN THE 1404 TIME HORIZON USING ARIMA

دست‌‌يابي به اهداف اقتصادي در ايران‌ِ سال 1404 نيازمند عوامل توليد از جمله «عامل انرژي» است. اين عامل تاثير گسترده‌يي بر اقتصاد دارد. به‌دليل اهميت گسترده‌ي انرژي در بخش حمل‌ونقل، پيش‌بيني تقاضاي انرژي از مسايل مهمِ پيشِ رو در اقتصاد است. بنابراين لازم است براي پاسخ‌گويي به تقاضاي آينده در بخش حمل‌ونقل، پيش‌بيني تقاضاي انرژي در اولويت قرار گيرد. در اين مطالعه سعي شده با استفاده از مدل اقتصاد‌سنجي «خودتوضيح جمعي ميانگين متحرك (ARIMA‌) » در بازه زماني 1346 تا 1388، تقاضاي انرژي در بخش حمل‌ونقل ايران براي افق زماني 1404 بررسي و پيش‌بيني شود. از نتايج اين تحقيق مي‌توان در ارايه‌ي پيشنهادهاي سياستي لازم در بخش عرضه‌ي انرژي براي پاسخ‌گويي به تقاضاي انرژي در بخش حمل ونقل ايران استفاده‌ي بهينه كرد.

The transport sector is vital to the economy of each country. Thus, this sector affects main economic variables, such as production, employment and the cost of living index in the short and long terms. Transportation is considered a key component of the national economy and infrastructure, due to the impact of the economic growth process. Apart from the important role of transportation in the service sector, it is also a main element in other economic sectors, such as agriculture and industry. Transport plays a role in the consumption market, as a bridge across various sectors of society, to move towards sustainable development. Given the importance of transport in the economic growth and prosperity of Iran, the study and identification of factors that affect this development are very important. Energy, as an important factor of production, as well as of the final products, has very important role, with significant effects on various sectors of the economy, especially the transportation sector. Transport is a major consumer of energy, and transportation vehicles use many forms of hydrocarbon fuel. Although in Iran, because of energy fluency and energy resource diversification, prices for domestic consumers are low, due to the need to understand the possible end of these God-given resources and prevent the crises of energy demand in the future, examination of the determinants of energy demand is important. The achievement of planned targets for the Iranian economy, Iranʹs prospects in 1404, requires readiness in a variety of areas, including resources and factors of production. Because of the importance of energy in the transportation sector, the prediction of energy demand is a major problem facing the economy. Therefore, forecasting energy demands, to respond to future demand in the transportation sector, is a priority for the economy. This study forecasts energy demand in the transportation sector in Iran, from 1346 to 1388, for the 1404 time horizon, using an econometric model named, ‘ARIMA’. The study results that estimate the rate of energy demand in this sector can provide the necessary policy proposals on energy supply in response to energy demand in the transportation sector in Iran.