روش نيمه تجربي - نيمه نظري بر پايه شبيه سازي تصادفي خرابي هاي خستگي جهت پيش بيني ترك خوردگي رويه هاي انعطاف پذير

Empirical-Mechanistic MethodBased Stochastic Modeling of Fatigue Damage Predict Flexible Pavement Cracking for Transportation Infrastructure Management

In the purely theoretical approach of pavement design, percentage fatigue cracking is related to the damage in probabilistic manner according to the Minerʹs law. Two methods that are currently widely in use are based on assumption of damage distribution. One method assumes fatigue damage being normally distributed., while the other one assumes the fatigue damage being lognormally distributed. Since mechanistic-empirical pavement design and pavement management requires precise forecasting of pavement fatigue cracking, much effort should be taken on characterize and predict fatigue cracking in terms of damage distribution. In this paper, we formulate the probability density distribution of fatigue damage of flexible pavement according to the underlying structure of fatigue cracking equations so that pavement fatigue-cracking damage can be interpreted in a more meaningful way. Numerical computation is conducted for a case study. It is found that damage is neither normally or lognormally distributed. It is therefore recommended that methodology and damage distribution model established in this paper be used in practice to predict damage distribution and percentage cracking so that a better estimations of fatigue cracking can be made.