تحليلي بر منابع رشد و تغييرهاي ساختار اقتصاد كشور با استفاده از جداول داده - ستانده (1365-1385)

The Analysis Growth Sources and Structural Changes in Iran Economy Using I-O Tables 1986-2006

در اين مقاله تلاش شده تا تغييرات ساختاري و عوامل رشد گروه‌هاي عمده كالايي در طرف تقاضا، با استفاده از پنج جدول داده ? ستانده سال‌هاي 1365، 1370، 1375، 1380 و 1385 تبيين و تحليل شود. جدول‌هاي مزبور در ابعاد 9×9 و به صورت كالايي (كالادركالا) مبتني بر جدول‌هاي پايه مركز آمار ايران بوده و فقط جدول سال 1385 بر مبناي جدول سال 1380 با استفاده از روش راس (RAS) متعارف توليد گرديده و سپس همه جدول‌ها براساس شاخص قيمت توليدكننده (PPI) به قيمت ثابت سال 1375 تبديل يافته‌اند. سوال اساسي اين تحقيق درباره دو محور است: اولاً، آيا در طول سال‌هاي 1365 الي 1385 تغييرات ساختاري در سطح كلان و گروه‌هاي عمده كالايي واقع شده است؟؛ ثانياً، ميزان سهم و تاثيرات هر يك از منابع چهارگانه رشد شامل «تقاضاي داخلي»، «گسترش صادرات»، «جانشيني واردات» و «تغيير در تكنولوژي توليد» چقدر است؟ دو عامل استراتژي جانشيني واردات و گسترش تقاضاي داخلي موثرترين عوامل در تغيير ساختار و منبع رشد شناخته شده‌اند. همچنين از ميان گروه‌هاي كالايي در مقطع زماني 1380?1385 برخلاف دوره‌هاي زماني قبل، تغييرات ساختاري گروه صنايع غذايي با بيشترين نرخ رشد و ميزان سهم همراه است و براي نخستين‌بار گروه‌هايي كه سهم بالاتري در تغييرات رشد دارند به نسبت از نرخ رشد بيشتري هم برخوردارند.

This article analyzes structural changes and growth sources and factors of major economic sectors in demand side using five Input-Output tables of 1986, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006. These tables have 9.9 dimensions and are based on benchmark tables of Statistical Center of Iran. Table regarding to 2006 is the only one based on 2001 table through usual RAS method. All tables have been modified for stable price of 1996 according to Producer Price Index (PPI). The main question of this study has two key points: first, whether any structural changes have been occurred since 1986 till 2006 in macro level and main product groups. Second, the proportion and effects of each factors and fourfold sources of growth including "domestic demand", "export expansion", "import substitution" and "technological changes" was how much in output growth and its structural changes during studied years. The analytical method used here is at the framework of Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA). Based on two methods of measuring growth changes, as absolute (?) and relative (?), each has been calculated using weighted indices of Laspeyres and Paasche; the results have been mainly presented as their mean in five-year periods and a long twenty year period. Two strategic factors of "import substitution" and "domestic demand expansion" have been known as the most effective factors in structural changes and growth output sources in different time periods. Among these fourfold factors, structural changes effects of technological changes or changes in intermediate demands of major product groups had ware significant structural changes compared with other factors. The most growth rate and share change in seen in structural changes of food industry groups at 2001-2006 periods in contrast to preceding periods. In this period, specifically, groups which had greater share in growth changes, relatively had larger growth rate for the first time. It is obvious that such trend is a promising hope to establish structural changes in macro economic strategies although it goes slowly.