شناسايي عوامل كليدي توسعه منطقه‌اي با رويكرد برنامه‌ريزي

Identification of Regional Development Key Factors by Scenario-base Planning Approach Case Study: East Azerbaijan Province

تجربه تهيه برنامه‌هاي توسعه منطقه‌اي و ميزان تحقّق و انعطاف‌پذيري آن‌ها در دهه‌هاي اخير، باعث سلب اعتماد مديران و برنامه‌ريزان از روش‌هاي برنامه‌ريزي مبتني بر پيش‌بيني و تحليل روندها شد. با پيشرفت‌هاي علمي و ظهور علم جديد آينده‌پژوهي و آينده‌نگاري، محققان برنامه‌ريزي سعي كردند از قابليت‌هاي اين علم در توسعه فنون برنامه‌ريزي استفاده كنند؛ كه به‌اين ترتيب به‌تدريج با استفاده گسترده از آن‌ها، روش‌ها و فنون آينده‌نگاري وارد بطن فعاليت‌هاي برنامه‌ريزي شد. يكي از اين روش‌ها، تحليل عوامل كليدي و شناسايي پيشران‌هاي توسعه است. در اين روش به جاي برنامه‌ريزي براي توسعه بلوكي تمام عناصر و عوامل دخيل در واحد برنامه‌ريزي، سعي مي‌شود عوامل كليدي و پيشران‌هاي اصلي توسعه شناسايي شود؛ سپس با مديريت آن عناصر و عوامل اصلي و با طراحي سناريوهاي ممكن در آينده، چارچوب برنامه‌ريزي و سياست‌گذاري انعطاف‌پذيري متناسب با شرايط منطقه برنامه‌ريزي ارايه شود. اين مقاله سعي دارد ضمن ارايه الگويي براي شناسايي عوامل كليدي موثر بر روند توسعه در مقياس منطقه‌اي، زمينه تهيه سناريوهاي ممكن و محتمل در ده سال آينده استان آذربايجان شرقي را فراهم كند. داده‌هاي اين مقاله شامل 76 عامل است كه با روش دلفي از كارشناسان توسعه استان جمع آوري و با نرم افزار ميك مك تحليل شده‌است و سر انجام سيزده عامل به‌عنوان عوامل كليدي و پيشران توسعه، شناسايي و وضعيت احتمالي آن‌ها در ده سال آينده جهت تهيه سناريوها تدوين شده‌است.

Experiences of regional planning in recent decades and its inflexibility have led to the change of regional planning from forecasting-base to scenario-base planning approach. On the scenario-base approach, instead of employing all factors, key and drive development factors are identified such that the framework of flexible planning and policy making are designed through managing of probable future scenarios. The objective of this paper is to use a scenario-base planning technique in East Azarbaijan province. The paper utilized a survey method by using a cross-impact matrix model. Data of the research were collected through questionnaire and Delphi method. In the first stage, in cooperation with experts, the factors affecting the provincial development were recognized, and in the second stage, the matrices of expert-recognized were completed and analyzed. To gain the goals, the direct and indirect analyses were utilized. In order to implement the research, the data of some 76 factors were collected by 10 different socio-economic groups in East Azarbaijan and analyzed by using MICMAC Software. Meanwhile, 13 key and drive factors were identified. The results showed that about 76.5 % of the matrix cells were full of data, indicating that a majority of factors had effects on each other. Out of the 4415 appraisal relations, some 1361 relations (24%) were null and did not affect each other. The research findings showed that, in East Azarbaijan province, the socio-economic system is unstable. In addition, factors of a) management system, b) research and development, c) high technology, d) Aras Free Zone, and e) water resources are key factors for the provincial future development. On the other hand, such factors as human development, social cohesion, ecological equilibrium, consumption pattern, environment, and national linkages are outputs that are extracted from the system and affected by other factors. In fact, these factors are the outcome of policies and implementation of plans but they do not influence other factors perse. Keywords: Development, Development drives, East Azarbaijan Province, Key factors, Scenario.