تعيين پيوندهاي بين بخشي در اقتصاد ايران با استفاده از روش حذف فرضي

Determining Inter-sectoral Linkages in the Iranian Economy using Extraction Method

هدف اين مطالعه، شناسايي بخش هاي كليدي در ارتباط با توليد و اشتغال در اقتصاد ايران بوده است. كه با استفاده از جدول داده - ستانده و رويكرد حذف فرضي صورت گرفته است. در اين مقاله، فعاليت هاي اقتصادي در 36 بخش تجميع شده است. نتيحه مطالعه نشان مي دهد كه در پنج بخش از اين فعاليت ها هر دو نوع پيوندهاي پسين و پيشين، قوي بوده يعني هم بر روي ساير فعاليت ها اثر گذار بوده و هم خود از آنها تاثير مي پذيرفته اند. اينها شامل كشاورزي، ساختمان سازي، عمده فروشي و خرده فروشي، خدمات حمل و نقل و ساير خدمات مي باشند. همچنين در شش رشته فعاليت، اثرات پيوندهاي پيشين قويتر بوده است؛ يعني آنها بر روي ساير فعاليت ها بيشتر اثر مي گذارند كه اينها عبارتند از فعاليت هاي مربوط به استخراج نفت و گاز طبيعي، معادن، صنايع شيميايي و پتروشيمي، محصولات كاني غيرفلزي، فلزات اساسي، آب، برق و گاز. اما در چهار رشته فعاليت مربوط به صنايع غذايي و آشاميدني ها، ساخت وسايل حمل و نقل موتوري، خدمات بخش عمومي و بهداشتي، اثرات پيوندهاي پسين، قويتر است. محاسبه ميزان اشتغالزايي بخشها نيز حكايت از آن دارد كه فعاليت هاي كشاورزي، ساختمان سازي، عمده فروشي و خرده فروشي، خدمات حمل و نقل، صنايع غذايي و خدمات بخش عمومي بهداشتي و آموزشي و صنايع ساخت وسايل نقليه موتوري و ساير تجهيزات از مهمترين فعاليت هاي اشتغالزا در كشور مي باشند. يافته هاي مربوط به همبستگي رتبه اي بين اشتغالزايي بخشها و پيوندهاي پسين و پيشين نيز اين نتيجه را تقويت مي كند؛ زيرا تنها پيوندهاي پسين با اشتغالزايي بخشها، همبستگي قوي و از نظر آماري معني دار داشته اما همبستگي اشتغالزايي بخشها با پيوندهاي پيشين ضعيف بوده است.

The purpose of this study is to find the key Iranian sectors in terms of output and employment. This research is done based on the Input-Output table of the year 2001 and Extraction Method. In this regard the economic activities are aggregated into 36 sectors. The results show that Forward and Backward output linkages were significant in five sectors namely agriculture, construction, wholesale and retail services, transport and other services. Forward linkages were strong in six sectors including oil and natural gas, mines and chemicals and petrochemicals, nonmetallic minerals, basic metals, water, gas and electricity as a group. On the other hand, backward linkages were very strong in four sectors such as food industries, transport equipment and machinery, education and health services and public services. Estimating the direct and indirect employment generation shows that agriculture, construction, wholesale and retail services, food industry, transport, education and health services and transport equipment are the main employment generating sectors. Spearman Rank Correlation Coefficient is also used to find out if there is any correlation between high ranking activities in output and employment. The results also indicate that there is a high rank correlation between backward output linkages and employment generation but week forward output linkages and employment generations. This shows that those activities which serve other activities in domestic market through its backward linkages are more important in output and employment generation. The weak rank correlation between output and employment generation indicate that these activities are highly depending on domestic demand but do not have much linkage with other sectors in the domestic economy, perhaps due to their dependence on imports for their inputs. Total average rank correlation between key sectors in output and employment generation shows a very weak correlation between the two, indicating that the sectors generating high linkages in output are also the same activities creating linkage in employment. The research findings reveal that how an oil producing country, using its oil revenues for imports and leading the expansion of wholesale and retail activities, transport services and public services in education health and other bureaucratic administration services, undermines the development of its manufacturing industries which are labeled as “engine of development”.