مدل چند ‌معياره‌ي ارزيابي موفقيت ايده‌آل پروژه‌هاي BOT ساختار و كاربردِ مدل

IDEAL SUCCESS EVALUATION MULTI OBJECTIVE MODEL FOR BOT PROJECTS; STRUCTURE AND APPLICATION

موفقيت نسبي و گسترش جهاني روش BOT موجب استقبال چشم‌گير كشورهاي در حال توسعه براي اجراي پروژه‌هايي شده كه دچار كمبود منابع يا عدم دسترسي به تكنولوژي مورد نيازند. تجارب حاضر نشان مي‌دهد كه لزوماً نمي‌توان هر پروژه‌يي را با اين روش اجرا كرد. لذا ارايه‌ي چارچوب و مدلي كه در نقطه‌ي آغازين پروژه قابليت اجراي آن را به روش BOT ارزيابي كند بسيار مفيد خواهد بود. در اين مقاله مدلي رياضي بر‌اساس مدل TOPSIS براي ارزيابي موفقيت پروژه‌هاي BOT ارايه شده كه با دريافت مشخصات پروژه از طريق شاخص‌هاي موفقيت (CSFs)، شانس انجام موفق آن را ارزيابي مي‌‌كند. اين مدل همچنين با اندازه‌گيري تاثير هر عامل در موفقيت پروژه مي‌تواند احتمال موفقيت آن را افزايش دهد.

Due to inadequate public funding and an increasing demand on infrastructure facilities, many governments worldwide are exploring new arrangements through public private partnerships (PPP), among which the BOT (build-operate-transfer) type model of procurement is a popular option. The BOT arrangement offers host governments an opportunity to accelerate infrastructure development without incurring large public expenditure and borrowing. Since the frequent use of the BOT approach has had relative success in developing countries (usually a long list of projects have budget restrictions), they are candidates for implementation through this model. Due to some failures, we are aware that not all projects are suitable for the BOT approach, and there is an urgent need to choose a suitable model for the project. In this paper, a decision support system model was made based on a multi criteria decision making model (MCDM). The technique for order preference by similarity of ideal solution (TOPSIS) model assesses the success of a BOT project as a computer program. This program gets the specifications of a project and delivers its opportunity of success as the output. To construct this model, the success appraisal indexes of the project were defined in two groups: Critical success factors and risks allocation. BOT projects encounter many situations that are inconvenient risk allocations in dealing with these situations, which probably result in failure to achieve the projectʹs purpose. So, the success of a BOT project depends on the assignment of a proper risk allocation between different participants. Thus, a comprehensive structure was proposed for identifying critical success factors and risks, and a framework for appropriate risk allocation to project participants was defined. It aims to support decision making as a priority to see which project is more appropriate to be delivered by the PPP approach, as well as selecting which incentive should be granted to private parties by governments (and when), to increase the projects chances of success. Consequently, disadvantages can be controlled or mitigated with risk measurement tools.