تحليل زمينه‌هاي علايق ژيوپليتيك ايران در جمهوريهاي آذربايجان و تركمنستان با استفاده از مدل سنجش ماتريس

Analysis of the Elements of Iran’s Geopolitical Interests in the Republics of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan via Matrix Examination Model

هم‌زمان با فروپاشي اتحاد جماهير شوروي و تجزيه بلوك شرق خلا قدرت در برخي از مناطق جهان پديد آمد. آذربايجان در قفقاز و تركمنستان در آسياي مركزي از جمله مناطقي بودند كه در نظام جديد بين‌الملل با خلا قدرت روبرو شدند. بنابراين، تحليل همگرايي و واگرايي مناطق مذكور نسبت به ايران به يك موضوع ژيوپليتيك تبديل گرديد. پژوهش حاضر جهت تعيين ميزان تاثيرگذاري مولفه هاي زمينه ساز علايق ژيوپليتيك ايران در دو جمهوري مذكور جدا از مساله واگرايي و همگرايي آنها مي پردازد. لذا ضمن تشريح علايق ژيوپليتيك ايران در جمهوري‌هاي آذربايجان و تركمنستان با استفاده از مدل سنجش ماتريس و تحليل بيست مولفه زمينه ساز درجهت پاسخ‌گويي به سوال زير پرداخته مي شود: «هر يك از مولفه‌هاي زمينه ساز علايق ژيوپليتيك ايران چقدر مي تواند در دو كشور آذربايجان و تركمنستان تاثيرگذار باشد فرض بر اين است كه علايق ژيوپليتيك ايران در دو كشور آذربايجان و تركمنستان متفاوت است. يافته‌هاي تحقيق نيز حاكي از آن است كه علايق ژيوپليتيك ايران در آذربايجان بيشتر از تركمنستان است.

Extended Abstract Introduction Power vacuum was created after the collapse of the Soviet Union in some regions of the world. Azerbaijan in Caucasus and Turkmenistan in central Asia were regions that faced with power vacuum. So, divergence and convergence analysis of these countries related to Iran was converted to a geopolitical matter. But this paper investigates the impact rate of underling factors of Iran’s geopolitical interests in these republics in addition to their divergence and convergence with Iran. Also, in this paper we debate geopolitical interests of Iran in these republics using Matrix Examination Model, and then, analyze the twenty underlying factors to address this question: How much these factors can influence the relations of Iran and these republics? It is assumed that geopolitical interests of Iran in these countries are different. Research findings show that Iran’s geopolitical interests in Azerbaijan are more than Turkmenistan. Methodology This research paper attempts to determine the influence rate of elementary factors of the geopolitical interests of Iran in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan republics. Thus, in the present paper, explaining the elements of Iran’s geopolitical interests in the two mentioned republics via Matrix Examination Model. It will be analyzed twenty elementary factors to answer this research question: How much each of the elementary factors can be influential on Iran’s geopolitical interests in the two countries of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan? In this way, the quantities of each factor are collected from valid documents. At first, it analyzed, countered and compared each factor and then determined Islamic Republic of Iran’s rate of geopolitical interests at the two mentioned countries through this trine process: 1. Determining absolute percent of factor X in the two comparing countries through these formulas: ´ 100 Quantities of factor X in country B ´ 100 Quantities of factor X in country A Quantities of factor X in Iran Quantities of factor X in Iran 2. Counting sum of absolute percent quantities of factor X in the two comparing countries regarding Iran 3. Determining the rate of Iran’s geopolitical interest toward the two comparing countries through these formulas: ´ 100 Absolute percent of factor X in Country A Sum of absolute percent of factor X in Country A regarding Iran ´ 100 Absolute percent of factor X in Country B Sum of absolute percent of factor X in Country B regarding Iran Statistical Population Statistical populations in this article are Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. Because these countries are neighboring countries and are setting in Asia that have different communions in cultural, economical, political, military and security fields. Sampling According to H.S. Boula’s table if statistical population were less than ten, sample size and statistical population will be equal. Then in this article 100% of statistical population (Iran, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan) are sample of research. Results and discussion This article explained four field of economical, political, social and cultural field in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan that influence Iran’s geopolitical national interests. In this way, twenty factors were extracted from these fields and the role of each factor in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan was showed. Conclusion Although the Cold War was ended soon after the fragmentation of the Soviet Union, geostrategic and geo-economic competition was intensified, especially in central Asia and Caucasus. Both Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have a collection of geographical, historical, religious, cultural, and etc. communions with Iran that make both countries to protect their relation with Iran for two decades after their independence. But which of the two mentioned countries has more importance in Iran’s geopolitical interests is the matter of evaluating the role of each of twenty factors in each country and the comparison of their quantities. Finally, research findings indicate that Iran’s geopolitical interests in Azerbaijan are more than geopolitical interests in Turkmenistan.