قابليت اتكا سودهاي پيش بيني شده مندرج درگزارش هاي توجيهي افزايش سرمايه

The Reliability of Earnings Forecast in Reports of Increasing Capital

هدف اصلي اين مقاله، ارزيابي ميزان خطاي سودهاي پيش بيني شده اي است كه درگزارش هاي توجيهي افزايش سرمايه بكار مي رود. به منظور انجام اين ارزيابي و دستيابي به هدف، اطلاعات مربوط به دارايي ها، بدهي ها، فروش و نسبت هاي مالي شامل اهرم مالي و نرخ بازده داخلي به عنوان معيارهاي ارزيابي عملكرد و همچنين خطاي مطلق سودهاي پيش بيني شده مندرج درگزارش هاي توجيهي افزايش سرمايه طي دوره هاي پيش بيني در بازه زماني 1386 تا 1388 به عنوان متغير وابسته مورد آزمون قرارگرفت. نتايج بدست آمده ازآزمون فرضيه هاي پژوهش نشان مي دهد كه بين خطاي مطلق پيش بيني سود شركت ها جهت توجيه افزايش سرمايه با متوسط مجموع دارايي ها / فروش، نرخ بازده داخلي، نوع صنعت (توليدي ياخدماتي) و نوع گزارش توجيهي افزايش سرمايه ( تامين مالي جهت سرمايه درگردش يا تامين مالي جهت طرح هاي توسعه اي) رابطه معني دار مشاهده گرديد و بين خطاي مطلق سودهاي پيش بيني شده با نسبت اهرم مالي شركت ها، سابقه حضور شركت ها دربورس و اندازه شركت ها هيچگونه رابطه معني داري مشاهده نگرديد.

The aim of this study is to assess the errors which would occur in the prediction of absolute earnings in the increasing capital reporting. To achieve mentioned objective, we have examined some information as performance evaluation measures including assets, debits, sales, financial leverage ratio, internal rate of returns and the errors which would occur in the prediction of absolute earnings in the increasing capital reporting from 1386 to 1388. The correlation analysis with linear regression and test variance analysis have been used as the statistical method and the gathered data has been analyzed via the SPSS software. On top pf that, rationality of the regression equation and its coefficients were investigated respectively with F and T tests. The results reveal a significant relation between the errors which would occur in the prediction of absolute earnings in the increasing capital reporting and financial position of the companies, internal rate of returns, the industry type, the reports type (financing for working capital or financing for development plans). In addition the errors which would occur in the prediction of absolute earnings was found independent to financial leverage rate, when the companies get into the Stock Exchange and size of the companies.