تاثير خصيصه هاي سود بر مدل هاي قيمت گذاري سهام و كيفيت سود

Earnings Quality and the Pricing Effects of Earnings Patterns

در اين مقاله، رابطه بين خصيصه هاي سود و مدل هاي قيمت گذاري سهام و كيفيت سود شركت هاي پذيرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران مورد بررسي قرار گرفته است. خصيصه هاي سود مورد مطالعه در اين تحقيق شامل پايداري سود، قابليت پيش بيني سود و پديده هموارسازي سود است. حجم جامعه آماري 430 شركت عضو بورس اوراق بهادار تهران مي باشد كه با توجه به محدوديت هاي تحقيق، تعداد 98 شركت در طي دوره زماني 1378 تا 1387 انتخاب شده است. نتايج حاصل از اين تحقيق نشان مي دهد كه طي دوره مورد مطالعه، بين مدل هاي قيمت گذاري، كيفيت سود و خصيصه هاي سود (پايداري سود و قابليت پيش بيني سود) رابطه مثبت و معنادار و بين هموارسازي سود، كيفيت سود و مدل هاي قيمت گذاري رابطه منفي و معناداري وجود دارد. همچنين در اين تحقيق مدل هايي جهت پيش بيني و تعيين ارزش ذاتي سهام شركت هاي پذيرفته شده در بورس اورق بهادار تهران تعيين شده است.

In this study, we examine the relation between earnings quality and earnings pattern and pricing of listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). We try to find the answer for this question "is there any direct and positive relation between earnings pattern and pricing?”. Earnings patterns which are used are "increasing annual earnings, meeting or exceeding management forecasts and smoothing". The numbers of statistic community are 430 companies in TSE. We select 98 companies from these statistic communities during 1379 – 1386 by restricting the companies that meet some crotieria for doing the research. We use the information from Financial Statements, Rahavard Novin, Tadbir Pardaz and libraries archives. For testing the Hypothesises, Pearson coefficient of correlation and multi variable regression model are used. The results show that there is a direct and positive relation between earnings pattern (smoothing), earnings quality and pricing, while there is no relation between earnings pattern (increasing annual earnings and meet or exceed management forecasts) and earnings quality. Also, in this study we try to find patterns, effective for valuation of share prices. The results of testing the first hypothesis show that there is a positive and direct relation between earnings pattern (smoothing) and pricings and the second hypothesis confirms that the relation between other earnings patterns and earnings quality is negative and indirect. Our final analysis examines whether the pricing effects associated with earnings patterns are a function of the quality of earnings. The results show that earnings quality level has no effect on the relationship between earnings patterns and stock prices.