رتبه‌بندي و سنجش سطح آسيب‌‌‌پذيري‌‌‌‌‌‌ سكونتگاههاي روستايي دربرابر ريسك زلزله (مطالعه موردي: مناطق روستايي استان قزوين)

Ranking and Assessment of the Vulnerability Level of Rural Settlements According To the Earthquake Risk (Case Study: Rural Areas of Qazvin Province)

پيشينه تاريخي، آسيب‌پذيري‌‌ بالاي كشور ايران دربرابر مخاطرات طبيعي، به‌ويژه زلزله را بيان مي‌كند. استان قزوين هم از مناطق زلزله‌خيز بوده و آسيب‌هاي زيادي را در گذر زمان متحمل شده است. براي بيان راهكارهاي كاهش آسيب‌ها، رتبه‌بندي ميزان آسيب‌‌‌پذيري‌‌ امري ضروري است. بنابراين، پژوهشگران برآن‌اند ضمن تبيين آسيب‌پذيري‌‌‌ بهصورت موردي در استان قزوين، به اين سوال اساسي پاسخ دهند كه رتبه‌بندي آسيب‌پذيري‌‌ مناطق روستايي قزوين دربرابر زلزله چگونه است. براي عملياتي كردن اهداف، نخست شاخصهاي مناسب جهت رتبه‌بندي آسيب‌پذيري‌‌ شناسايي شدند، سپس اطلاعات بهشيوه اسنادي و مطالعات كتابخانهاي گردآوري، و در مرحله بعد با استفاده از تكنيك TOPSIS، مناطق روستايي رتبه‌بندي شدند. يافتههاي تحقيق نشان مي‌دهد روستاهاي شهرستانهاي قزوين و بويينزهرا داراي بيشترين ميزان ريسك هستند. پژوهشگران با بهرهگيري از 69 گويه مرتبط با كاهش آسيب‌پذيري‌‌ در قالب طيف ليكرت، با استفاده از فرمول كوكران و به‌روش تصادفي طبقهاي در سطح 29 روستا و نزد 386 نفر از خانوارهاي ساكن روستايي شهرستان با اولويت بالاتر ريسك (قزوين)، پيشنهادهايي را در چارچوب تكنيك سوات براي كاهش آسيب‌پذيري‌‌ مطرح كردند.

Natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes are integral part of human life in the communities of developed and developing countries. Earthquakes as a natural disaster have been posed inevitable risks to everyone who has been lived in the earth planet. The map of earthquakes in Iran shows that the most populated areas are located in the Zagros and Alborz Piedmonts especially in Qazvin province that are vulnerable to earthquake. This research uses the qualitative and quantitative methods to respond a basic question, how is the vulnerability level of rural areas according to earthquake in Qazvin province? To respond these question firstly 19 vulnerability indicators were selected according to the theoretical studies and indices were weighted by the expertʹs questioner. Finally, the rural area was ranked by TOPSIS method. The Results showed that the rural areas of Qazvin and Boein Zahra counties are the more vulnerable areas in elative to other counties of the province. To formulate the strategies of earthquake risk reduction, 29 villages were selected by cluster sampling and then it was estimated the samples by Cochrane method. To gather the data, 386 households were selected by random method. The data analysis by the quantitative methods especially SWOT method also show that to decrease the earthquake risk between the studied villages, it is necessary to consider the earthquake risk management formwork in all earthquake phases. These phases include data collection and identification of earthquake risk, describe the risk, qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, estimination the damage Quality, risk acceptance and planning to reduce injuries in all stages the earthquake (before, during and after). In order to reduce vulnerability of rural settlements in Qazvin County it is necessary to increase the awareness, skills, knowledge, institutional capacity, environmental carrying capacity (improve the quality of housing, infrastructure, and access to services).